Zhuhai agricultural credit cooperative will issue 100 % of its shares in the form of one yuan rmb to one share to realize a 300 million yuan rmb asset increase in the 1st half of this year in order to push its reform forward 珠海农信社将拿出100 %股份,以一股一元的价格向社会发行,在今年上半年实现增资扩股3亿元,以推动珠海农信改革的顺利进行。
In this thesis , the agricultural credit , as a production factor , is putted in the market analysis framework . under this logical framework , the mechanism and efficiency of china ' s acm have been studied theoretically and empirically 本文将农业信贷作为一种要素纳入市场分析框架，并运用市场分析、行为分析、制度分析和计量分析等研究方法对中国农业信贷市场的运行机制与绩效进行了理论探讨和实证分析。
They are agricultural productive materials price growth rate , sown area of grain crops growth rate , grain yield per area growth rate - , natural disaster covered grain areas growth rate , net grain import change rate , grain reserve change rate , population growth rate , per income growth rate , city and town population growth rate , food industry production value growth rate , year - end pig number growth rate , medical & pharmaceutical and textile industry production value growth rate , grain marketization degree , inflation rate using the previous year as base year ( preceding year = 100 ) , public grain purchases price growth rate , investment in agricultural science and technology growth rate , investment in agricultural infrastructure growth rate , growth rate of graduates number from agriculture , forestry , science & technology universities and colleges and specialized secondary schools , government expenditure for agriculture and agricultural credit growth rate , international grain price growth rate , rmb exchange rate growth rate , last grain price growth rate , economic crop price growth rate , , meanwhile , a new method is attempted to be used in this paper and the grain price early - warning problem is transformed into machine learning problem by introducing statistic learning theory and svm method which are gaining popularity in machine learning field at present in the world 在此基础上，筛选出23个警兆指标：农用生产资料价格增长率、粮食播种面积增长率、粮食单产增长率、粮食受灾面积增长率、粮食净进口量变化率、粮食储备变动率、人口增长率、人均收入增长率、城镇人口增长率、食品工业产值增长率、猪年末头数增长率、医药纺织工业产值增长率、粮食市场化程度、以上年为基年的通货膨胀率、国家粮食定购价格增长率、农业科技投入增长率、农业基础设施投入增长率、农、林、科技高校大、中专毕业生人数增长率、财政支农资金比重及农业信贷增长率、国际粮食市场价格增长率、人民币汇率增长率、上期粮食价格增长率、经济作物价格增长率。同时论文在预警方法上作了新的尝试，把粮食价格预警问题转换成一个机器学习问题，引进当前国际上机器学习领域中比较热门的统计学习理论和支持向量机方法，用顺序回归算法对历史数据进行学习建立了粮食价格预警模型。
Consequently , in order to improve the mechanisms of china ' s acm as well as to enhance its efficiency , it is essential that ( 1 ) to integrate china ' s acms separated in all of the country ; ( 2 ) to construct agricultural credit information system and to reform land market institutes ; and ( 3 ) to reconstruct china ' s agricultural credit system , especially , to reform the institutions of rcc and enlarge the scale of adbc ' s agricultural policy credit . the main innovation points in this thesis are as the following 因此，为了改善中国农业信贷市场的运行机制，提高中国农业信贷市场效率及其对中国农业产出的绩效，必须积极培育和发展农业信贷市场，并通过地区间农业信贷市场的整合来推动各地农业信贷市场的均衡发展，建立统一协调的农业信贷市场；必须建立农户信用信息体系，降低农业信贷交易成本；改革农村耕地使用权流转机制，建立耕地使用权交易市场，适时发展农村土地金融制度；加快对农村信用社的改革，并扩大农业政策性信贷的范围和规模。
The main conclusion is that ( 1 ) china ' s acm is incomplete , therefore , the market equilibrium is in low level ; ( 2 ) the operating scale , the income and property , the product investment , the cash expenditure of education and medical treatment are the main factors that affect the credit demand of households in rural china ; ( 3 ) the asymmetry information , the high transaction cost and the lack of effective supply institutes are the main factors that lead to low efficiency of china ' s acm ; and ( 4 ) the agricultural credit has the positive effect on china ' s agricultural production factors demand and agricultural output , consequently , the agricultural credit is the main factor that restrain the increase of agricultural output and agricultural development 本文的基本结论是：中国农业信贷市场正处在发育的初级阶段，市场机制仍不完善，农业信贷市场处于“低水平均衡”状态；农户是中国农业信贷需求的主体，农户经营规模、农户收入和财产状况、农户生产投资规模以及教育、医疗等大额现金支出是影响农户借贷需求的主要因素；非对称信息、高交易成本、有效供给制度缺乏是造成农业信贷市场低效率的重要因素；中国农业信贷投入对农业投入要素的需求具有正向影响，即增加农业信贷供给，将会提高农业投入要素的需求水平，进而增加中国农业产出，促进农业长期发展。
In detail , the mechanism analysis has been divided into four parts : the demand of agricultural credit , the supply , the interest rate and market equilibrium , disequilibrium information and risk . additionally , the efficiency analysis pays attention to two sides : market efficiency and the acm ' s effect on agricultural output 在运行机制分析中，分别从中国农业信贷需求、供给、利率与市场均衡、非均衡信息与风险四个方面进行了研究；在绩效分析中，分别从市场效率和农业信贷对农业产出的绩效两个方面进行了研究。
Consequently , in order to optimizing the saving behavior and harmonizing the economy development , it is essential that ( 1 ) to perfect the price system of farm produce in order to improve the level of income of rural residents ; ( 2 ) to safeguard the right of land and social security to reduce the uncertain anticipation ; and ( 3 ) to reconstruct china ' s agricultural credit system to release the restriction of fluidity . the main innovation points in this thesis are as the following . the analysis framework of saving behavior of rural residents has been put up 因此，为了改善中国农村居民储蓄行为，加强宏观经济调控，必须完善农村市场价格调节机制，保证农村居民收入的稳定增长；为农村居民提供相应的社会保障制度，降低其对未来收入特别是支出方面的预期尤为重要；加强农村公共物品市场体系建设，缩小城乡以及地区间的收入差距；政府应当重点考虑规范正规金融市场与强化农村正规信贷市场，解决农村居民的流动性约束问题；帮助农村居民确立合理的消费期望，培养农村居民把握消费的自主意识及合理进行消费决策的能力。
